Will it work? Why and how developing a Logic Model and/or Theory of Change can strengthen results

Any intentionally planned change or intervention must have the end result in mind. Let’s take the example of a philanthropic organization seeking to reduce homeless in the community. Though the desired outcome is clear, how will they get there? And how will they know if they are successful. In this blog, I define the logic model or theory of change approach to planning and highlight the value of developing a clear path forward through a facilitated process that engages stakeholders. 

What is a logic model? What is a theory of change? What is the difference?

The development of a logic model and/or theory of change (ToC) is foundational in program development and evaluation, helping to map how and why a program is expected to work. It's the architectural plan for purposeful change. These models not only clarify assumptions and link activities to outcomes but also guide implementation and evaluation strategies. The logic model or ToC would clearly outline our philanthropic organization's goal and identify the resources required to implement effective strategies for ending homelessness while quantifying the results of that work.

A theory of change is a comprehensive explanation and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context, mapping the causal pathways from activities to long-term goals. A logic model is a visual representation that outlines the logical relationships among a program’s resources, activities, outputs, and intended outcomes to clarify how and why a program is expected to achieve its goals. Essentially, these two concepts work in the same way - to guide effective planning and evaluation - and are often complementary. The big difference is that a ToC is presented in a narrative format with detailed explanations and citations, while a logic model is displayed in a condensed graphic format focused on brevity and metrics. 

Logic models gained popularity in the late 1990-2000’s through widely disseminated publications from the United Way of America and Kellogg Foundation that outlined best practices for practitioners. Logic models are often required in grant proposals to convey how funding and resources will be used and the overall impact of the investment. Logic models often form the basis of program evaluation, providing metrics for assessing progress and key performance indicators of change. While there are endless, nuanced resources detailing the components of a logic model, most logic models follow a similar structure as shown in Figure 1. 

Figure 1. Simple Logic Model Format

Inputs What resources do we need?	Activities What will the program do?	Outputs What will be produced?	Short-term outcomes What changes will occur immediately?	Mid-term outcomes What changes will occur in the next 6-12 months?	Long-term outcomes What are the ultimate goals or long-term effects of the program?
Funding Staff Partners Supplies Equipment	Evidence-based programs & practices Communication Evaluation	Number of participants Newly created products or resources	Increased knowledge Improved skills Increased awareness or understanding	Changes in behavior Changes in access, conditions, or opportunities	Overall goal to improve housing outcomes.

How should a ToC and/or Logic Model be Developed?

It is perfectly reasonable to develop a logic model or ToC independently when developing your idea or proposal to share with potential funders. However, the best ToCs and logic models are developed collaboratively by stakeholders who are knowledgeable about the intended area of change. The process of engaging with others in planning not only creates buy-in, but provides a sandbox for exploring new ideas for change.  

A well-planned, facilitated process is great path forward to engaging leaders, staff, community, and any other targeted audiences in the change process. Start with the end in mind: identify the goal (long-term outcome), then determine what needs to happen immediately (short-term outcome) to affect change (medium-term outcomes). Once these key pieces have been confirmed, the program planning begins. A timeline for collaborative development should include conducting a needs assessment if one does not already exist and a literature or clearinghouse review to identify evidence-based programs or practices through prior to determining the intervention (i.e., activities). Ultimately, a facilitated process should be tailored to your organization’s need.    

Let’s Talk!

Whether you’re starting a new program, seeking funding, or revisiting your organization’s strategy, a needs assessment can be your launchpad for success. Contact me today to discuss a customized facilitation process for developing your program’s  logic model or ToC development!